PJM data reveals AI datacenter projects now average over seven years to go live, with post-approval delays outpacing queue wait times. The bottleneck has shifted to transmission buildouts and supply chain constraints.
Key facts
- Average 7+ years for AI projects to go live in PJM territory.
- 4 years spent waiting after interconnection approval.
- PJM received 220 GW in preliminary interconnection applications.
- PJM projects peak demand rising from 154 GW to 210 GW by 2036.
- 95 large-load adjustment requests from AI data centers.
New PJM Interconnection data shows that AI infrastructure projects entering service in 2025 took an average of more than seven years to reach operational status, according to Data Center Knowledge. The critical finding: the biggest delays are no longer in the interconnection queue itself.
Projects spent an average of more than three years reaching an interconnection service agreement, and another four years waiting to come online after approval. "That confirms what we have been trying to emphasize – the issues outside of the queue are the biggest obstacle we face to bringing projects online," Jeff Shields, PJM senior manager of external communications, told Data Center Knowledge in an email.
The Downstream Bottleneck
Transmission buildouts, substation capacity, and strained supply chains are now the primary obstacles to energizing projects. This shifts the narrative from queue reform to infrastructure execution. PJM has overhauled its interconnection process, replacing first-come, first-served with a cluster-based review system. Under the reformed process, new Cycle 1 projects are expected to receive interconnection agreements within one to two years, depending on system impact.
However, the data suggests that faster approvals alone won't solve the problem. The real constraint is post-approval construction — a phase PJM itself has no control over once the Interconnection Service Agreement is signed. "A project is finished with the PJM process and requires nothing further from PJM once it signs an Interconnection Service Agreement," Shields said.
Scaling Pressure
PJM said it has processed more than 170,000 MW of generation requests since 2023 and currently has about 30 GW of projects left to process from transition cycles. The organization recently received applications representing roughly 220 GW of proposed projects for its next interconnection cycle, though that figure remains preliminary. PJM's 2026 load forecast projects that summer peak demand will rise from roughly 154 GW in 2025 to nearly 210 GW by 2036, driven primarily by data center expansion and electrification. The scale is accelerating: PJM said it received 95 large-load adjustment requests reflecting surging demand from AI data centers.
Implications for AI Infrastructure
The findings complicate the growing narrative that interconnection queues alone are driving delays in large AI infrastructure projects. Recent analysis has cited timelines of approximately eight years for projects reaching operation in PJM territory. Shields said those figures often mischaracterize the transmission company's role by including construction and post-approval development work in the queue timeline.
For operators like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, this means that securing interconnection rights is only the first hurdle. The real work — and risk — lies in the post-approval phase, where supply chains for transformers, switchgear, and transmission lines face their own multi-year backlogs. As global datacenter capital expenditure reaches $250-300 billion annually [per prior reporting], the PJM data underscores that capital deployed today may not translate to operational capacity until the early 2030s.
What to watch
Watch for PJM's Cycle 1 interconnection results in Q3 2026, which will reveal whether queue reforms translate to faster approvals. Also monitor transformer lead times from major suppliers — a key metric for post-approval construction timelines.
